The New Straits Times, August 27, 2000
By Prof Dzulkifli Abdul Razak
MALAYSIA celebrates her 43rd anniversary of independence next week, and as a relatively new nation, many of its systems are still evolving and fragile.
One reality is the fate of our environment, in particular our atmosphere. Worldwide, the last decade was the hottest on record. This trend could continue unabated unless concrete solutions are devised.
Although bodies like the United Nations have taken steps to decelerate the warming process by getting nations to cut production of greenhouse gases, this is clearly not enough.
There are indications that global warming is worsening. Most striking is the finding that the Arctic ice is about 40 per cent thinner than it was a few decades ago.
Some of the expected outcomes of global warming will be occurrences like the melting of glaciers, the rising of the sea levels as well as the warming of the ocean.
Land too will be heated, becoming more parched in dry regions. This could alter pressure gradients causing storms and tornadoes.
Such changes frequently leave indirect health impacts in the form of malnutrition and food shortages.
Floods and droughts are associated with an increase in water-borne illnesses, especially cholera.
This, at least in part, is due to the disruption of clean water supply and the facilities for the practice of good hygiene. In addition, large populations when displaced, can lead to overcrowding.
What is perhaps less known is the more direct health risk attributed to global warming.
This is now being predicted based on computer models which indicate that the incidence and distribution of many serious medical disorders will expand following the phenomenon.
This can happen in a variety of ways writes Dr Paul R. Epstein, associate director of the Center for Health and Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, in the latest issue of Scientific American.
According to Epstein, most directly, global warming generates more, stronger and hotter heat waves.
When prolonged, this can enhance production of smog and the dispersal of allergens affecting the respiratory system. In some places, the number of heat wave-related deaths is projected to double by the year 2020.
Especially during the dry period of El Nino, this part of the world has seen outbreaks of dengue, encephalitis as well as cholera.
In parts of Southeast Asia and Australia then, the incidence of vector-borne and water-borne diseases climbed, writes Epstein. Coupled with the world's worst haze blanketing the region then, respiratory illnesses _ due to heavy smog _ was even more evident.
Thus, the emergence, resurgence and spread of infectious diseases is expected to increase, with mosquito-borne diseases being among the greatest concern as the world warms, said Epstein.
Though extreme heat (and cold) will kill the insects, global warming can result in more areas being favourable to the breeding and infesting of mosquitos.
This is made worse by the modern transportation systems where humans and insects can migrate with greater ease. At the same time, greater heat speeds the rate at which pathogens inside them reproduce and mature. The recent West Nile virus emerging in New York may just be one such example.
In developing countries, the forecast is even gloomier. But through some appropriate steps the health impact of global warming could be minimised.
The health toll will depend largely on the steps taken to prepare for the dangers. And ideally it has to be a multiple strategy.
Of immediate concern to us is the strategy to reduce global warming itself. This includes the halting of irresponsible activities that could further exacerbate the situation, such as in the case of open burning and the indiscriminate industrial use of fossil fuels. Dirty motor vehicle emissions are not excluded.
But to halt the rise in atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates, will require a whopping 60 to 70 per cent reduction in emissions.
In addition, forests and wetlands could also play a role, since their conservation and restoration can help absorb much of the carbon dioxide and mitigate flooding and at the same time filter contaminants before they could reach water supplies.
In short, the survival of a nation does not entirely stem from enduring systems of politics and socio-economics alone. The threat to the environment is just as crucial in that it could retard the growth of a nation as illustrated by the phenomenon of global warming.
Hence, as we prepare to celebrate 43 years of Merdeka, we must take cognisance of how much more vulnerable Malaysia can be if its citizen insist on behaving irresponsibly with respect to the safeguard of the environment.
Together, let us take the time to reflect on this and be resolute to change our ways as we approach the 31st of August, if for no other reason except for our love Keranamu Malaysia.
Recommended website, http://www.heatisonline.org
